The model came back down to Earth a little bit last week, going 4-8 on the ML and 7-6 on totals. That brings the model to 94-71-2 on the year since Week 5.
We will look to get back on track this week, and I believe there is a lot of value on the board.
These are all the leans for ML and totals. I will breakdown some of the most interesting plays below.
Houston @ Baltimore
1PM EST
Spread: BAL -4.5
O/U: 51
Two of the MVP front runners face off in what should be the best game of the 1 o'clock window. Both teams are relatively healthy, with the Ravens only missing DT Michael Pierce, with Hollywood Brown and WR Chris Moore both questionable. The Texans WR Will Fuller, CB Bradley Roby, S Tashaun Gipson, and OT Laremy Tunsil are all questionable. Lamar Jackson is playing at a blistering pace, and torched the Bengals last week, throwing for 223 yards and 3 TDs, while rushing for another score. There is a belief that the Ravens defense is bad, but they are only allowing 19.6 ppg.
Deshaun Watson has been great as well, and the Texans handled the Jaguars 26-3 in London. Their defense has looked much improved as well.
At first glance, 51 seems a little low to me, but both teams defenses have played better, and both teams play slow. The Ravens have the slowest pace of play, which can make a total in the fifties scary. The model likes the total up to 52, but I wouldn't play anything over 51.5.
Baltimore is 6-1 after a win SU and 4-1 at home SU this year. I expect Baltimore to win, but it should be close.
BAL ML (-220) , O51 (-110)
Atlanta @ Carolina
1 PM
Spread:CAR -4.5
Total:49
I love Atlanta in this spot. We saw Kyle Allen throw his first interception of the season last week against the Packers, and I think the wheels fall off a little more against Atlanta. The Falcons surprised everyone last week by absolutely manhandling the Saints and their usually stout offensive line, racking up 6 sacks and 11 QB hits. It seems like the defense is playing for Dan Quinn, and I see this game going under. I usually don't like using trends, but the Under has hit in 3 of the Falcons last 4 games, and that was before their defense decided to start showing up. The model has been on fire picking totals in Falcons games, going a perfect 5-0 on plays since Week 5.
We usually don't make spread plays, but I like ATL +4.5 and I'd HAMMER the under, anything below 48.
ATL +4.5 (-110), U49 (-110)
Denver @ Minnesota
1PM
Spread: MIN -10
O/U:40.5
Kirk Cousins is a different animal at home during the 1 O'clock time slate. In his career, he is 34-20-1 in the early slate. (10-23-1 in all other times), and 28-17 at home. Their defense hasn't looked great, but I don't see Brandon Allen causing too many issues for them. They will be without Adam Thielen again, which could make this game more interesting. Look for the Vikings to run the ball and dominate the Broncos. This game feels like a 31-14 game to me.
I feel comfortable with the over here up to 41.5, and the Vikings team total at O26.5 (-115) seems like an interesting play as well.
O40.5, MIN O26.5
New England @ Philadelphia
4:25PM
Spread:NE-4.5
O/U:45
This looks like a rebound spot for the Patriots. Tom Brady is 13-4 after the bye in his career, and after being crushed by the Ravens in their last game, they are going to look to come out strong. The Eagles pass defense, which was abysmal for most of the season, has played better as of late, allowing only 156.7 yards through the air over the last three games. Take that with a grain of salt, as two of those games came against Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky.
I fully expect New England to exploit Philadelphia's pass defense and score points. The question for the total is whether Philadelphia can do enough offensively to help push the game over. Baltimore showed last week that New England can be scored on, and Wentz's mobility, while not in the same stratosphere as Lamar Jackson's, could cause some issues for the Patriots defense. He should play well enough to help push the game over.
This game is a little scary to me, so I wouldn't take the over on anything higher than 45.
NE ML, O45
Chicago @ LA Rams
6:20PM
Spread:LAR-6
O/U:40
This is a match-up of two of the more disappointing teams this season. The Rams offense has regressed mightily from its "Greatest Show on Turf II" last year, and Jared Goff has struggled to find a rhythm at all this season. The NFC representative to the Super Bowl last year now sits at 5-4 and in third place in their own division. The Bears, after going 12-4 last year, have completely collapsed this year. Terrible play by Mitchell Trubisky and suspect playcalling have led the Bears to stumble to 4-5.
This is by far the easiest pick of the week for me. The Rams offense, even at home where Goff excels, hasn't been great. And they get to face the toughest defense in the NFC. They haven't been able to get anything going on the ground. The Bears offense can't score at all either, averaging only 18 points/game this season.
40 seems really high to me for this game. Vegas must assume that the Rams pick it up offensively at home and the Bears turn some field goal drives into touchdowns. I disagree. This game should go under easily and is my highest confidence play this week.
U40
Tease of the Week
Last Week:
Nothing sucks more than losing a 5-team teaser by 1 point, especially in a game where the Panthers missed a two point conversion and were stopped on a goal line stand.
No matter, a loss is a loss and the teasers are now 5-5 on the year.
This Week:
I have a 6-team, 6 point teaser at +600 that I believe has a great shot of hitting this week:
We will look to get back on track this week, and I believe there is a lot of value on the board.
The Picks
These are all the leans for ML and totals. I will breakdown some of the most interesting plays below.
Houston @ Baltimore
1PM EST
Spread: BAL -4.5
O/U: 51
Two of the MVP front runners face off in what should be the best game of the 1 o'clock window. Both teams are relatively healthy, with the Ravens only missing DT Michael Pierce, with Hollywood Brown and WR Chris Moore both questionable. The Texans WR Will Fuller, CB Bradley Roby, S Tashaun Gipson, and OT Laremy Tunsil are all questionable. Lamar Jackson is playing at a blistering pace, and torched the Bengals last week, throwing for 223 yards and 3 TDs, while rushing for another score. There is a belief that the Ravens defense is bad, but they are only allowing 19.6 ppg.
Deshaun Watson has been great as well, and the Texans handled the Jaguars 26-3 in London. Their defense has looked much improved as well.
At first glance, 51 seems a little low to me, but both teams defenses have played better, and both teams play slow. The Ravens have the slowest pace of play, which can make a total in the fifties scary. The model likes the total up to 52, but I wouldn't play anything over 51.5.
Baltimore is 6-1 after a win SU and 4-1 at home SU this year. I expect Baltimore to win, but it should be close.
BAL ML (-220) , O51 (-110)
Atlanta @ Carolina
1 PM
Spread:CAR -4.5
Total:49
I love Atlanta in this spot. We saw Kyle Allen throw his first interception of the season last week against the Packers, and I think the wheels fall off a little more against Atlanta. The Falcons surprised everyone last week by absolutely manhandling the Saints and their usually stout offensive line, racking up 6 sacks and 11 QB hits. It seems like the defense is playing for Dan Quinn, and I see this game going under. I usually don't like using trends, but the Under has hit in 3 of the Falcons last 4 games, and that was before their defense decided to start showing up. The model has been on fire picking totals in Falcons games, going a perfect 5-0 on plays since Week 5.
We usually don't make spread plays, but I like ATL +4.5 and I'd HAMMER the under, anything below 48.
ATL +4.5 (-110), U49 (-110)
Denver @ Minnesota
1PM
Spread: MIN -10
O/U:40.5
Kirk Cousins is a different animal at home during the 1 O'clock time slate. In his career, he is 34-20-1 in the early slate. (10-23-1 in all other times), and 28-17 at home. Their defense hasn't looked great, but I don't see Brandon Allen causing too many issues for them. They will be without Adam Thielen again, which could make this game more interesting. Look for the Vikings to run the ball and dominate the Broncos. This game feels like a 31-14 game to me.
I feel comfortable with the over here up to 41.5, and the Vikings team total at O26.5 (-115) seems like an interesting play as well.
O40.5, MIN O26.5
New England @ Philadelphia
4:25PM
Spread:NE-4.5
O/U:45
This looks like a rebound spot for the Patriots. Tom Brady is 13-4 after the bye in his career, and after being crushed by the Ravens in their last game, they are going to look to come out strong. The Eagles pass defense, which was abysmal for most of the season, has played better as of late, allowing only 156.7 yards through the air over the last three games. Take that with a grain of salt, as two of those games came against Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky.
I fully expect New England to exploit Philadelphia's pass defense and score points. The question for the total is whether Philadelphia can do enough offensively to help push the game over. Baltimore showed last week that New England can be scored on, and Wentz's mobility, while not in the same stratosphere as Lamar Jackson's, could cause some issues for the Patriots defense. He should play well enough to help push the game over.
This game is a little scary to me, so I wouldn't take the over on anything higher than 45.
NE ML, O45
Chicago @ LA Rams
6:20PM
Spread:LAR-6
O/U:40
This is a match-up of two of the more disappointing teams this season. The Rams offense has regressed mightily from its "Greatest Show on Turf II" last year, and Jared Goff has struggled to find a rhythm at all this season. The NFC representative to the Super Bowl last year now sits at 5-4 and in third place in their own division. The Bears, after going 12-4 last year, have completely collapsed this year. Terrible play by Mitchell Trubisky and suspect playcalling have led the Bears to stumble to 4-5.
This is by far the easiest pick of the week for me. The Rams offense, even at home where Goff excels, hasn't been great. And they get to face the toughest defense in the NFC. They haven't been able to get anything going on the ground. The Bears offense can't score at all either, averaging only 18 points/game this season.
40 seems really high to me for this game. Vegas must assume that the Rams pick it up offensively at home and the Bears turn some field goal drives into touchdowns. I disagree. This game should go under easily and is my highest confidence play this week.
U40
Tease of the Week
Last Week:
No matter, a loss is a loss and the teasers are now 5-5 on the year.
This Week:
I have a 6-team, 6 point teaser at +600 that I believe has a great shot of hitting this week:
NE+1.5 vs. PHI
KC LAC O46.5
CHI LAR U46
ARI SF O38
ATL CAR U55.5
HOU BAL O45.5
*BONUS NCAAF TEASER*
I have a three team, 7 point NCAAF teaser, at +150
Georgia +3 vs. Auburn
Florida-0.5 vs. Mizzou
Alabama -12.5 vs. Miss. St.
Georgia is a better team than Auburn. +3 gets them to a good number to where I feel very comfortable. The Florida/Mizzou line made no sense to me. Florida has played great this year with Kyle Trask at QB, and Missouri has been a major disappointment. On top of that, Kelly Bryant won't be playing at 100%. Getting UF to essentially a PK seems like a mortal lock. Finally, Alabama is going to come out and light up the scoreboard after a shootout loss to LSU. They need to string together big wins to keep their names alive in the playoff hunt, and getting Alabama at less than a two touchdown favorite should end up well for us.
*BONUS NCAAF TEASER*
I have a three team, 7 point NCAAF teaser, at +150
Georgia +3 vs. Auburn
Florida-0.5 vs. Mizzou
Alabama -12.5 vs. Miss. St.
Georgia is a better team than Auburn. +3 gets them to a good number to where I feel very comfortable. The Florida/Mizzou line made no sense to me. Florida has played great this year with Kyle Trask at QB, and Missouri has been a major disappointment. On top of that, Kelly Bryant won't be playing at 100%. Getting UF to essentially a PK seems like a mortal lock. Finally, Alabama is going to come out and light up the scoreboard after a shootout loss to LSU. They need to string together big wins to keep their names alive in the playoff hunt, and getting Alabama at less than a two touchdown favorite should end up well for us.
Good luck to everyone. I'll have a preview for Week 12 and a Week 11 Recap up on Friday and Saturday.
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