Week 1 Picks
NFL Week 1 Picks and Teaser of the Week
As we return for another NFL season, I'm back with more picks for the season. Over the last three seasons, I have gone 638-555-19 for +395.32u. (All bets are tracked on ActionNetwork at lvhansen https://myaction.app/079JtkWF8
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
9/12/22 8:15PM ESPN
DEN -6.5 o/u 44.5
The Russell Wilson revenge game will get MNF treatment. As Russ returns to play a depleted Seahawks team, I expect a slow start in the game. The Seahawks still have offensive weapons, but after drafting Kenneth Walker in the 2nd round and going with Geno Smith as the starting QB, Pete Carroll is making it clear he wants to run the ball. The Broncos didn't play any significant players on offense for a single snap in the preseason, and the 12th man is going to be raucous. Both teams are going to keep the ball on the ground early, and I think there will be some rust for the Broncos on offense.
PLAY: 1Q u9.5 -110 (at Fanduel)
Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers
9/11/22 4:25 PM
LAC -3.5 o/u 52.5
The Chargers are being viewed as a favorite in the AFC, and certainly in the AFC West. But I think the Raiders did more to improve this offseason than the Chargers did. This Raiders team rallied from adversity last year to slip into the playoffs by knocking off the Chargers in Week 18. The Raiders went out and got Chandler Jones and brought Davante Adams in to pair with college teammate Derek Carr and Hunter Renfrow. This potent Raiders pass attack will also be going up against a Chargers defense without JC Jackson, the Chargers shiny new offseason DB acquisition. Getting the field goal and the hook is too good to pass up. The Raiders win outright
PLAY: LV +3.5 -110 (at MGM)
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
9/11/22 1:00PM
CAR -2.5 o/u 41.5
If it were not for Wilson's return to Seattle, Baker Mayfield's rematch against the Browns would be the main event. After a dramatic offseason with the Browns absolutely disrespecting Mayfield, he is going to be looking for revenge. He had some choice words for them earlier this week, but this is a good Browns defense. Therefore, I'm looking at a different angle to back Mayfield in his revenge game. Baker is not afraid to scramble, but he is not known as a running QB. He's never had close to 200 yards rushing in a season, but when the pocket breaks down, and he's healthy, he will take off. This Browns defense may outmatch the Browns this week, and Baker may be forced to make some plays with his feet. He may be motivated to take a few more chances to stick it to the Browns. I love Baker's rushing prop in this game.
PLAY: Mayfield o8.5 rush yds -115 (At Fanduel)
CAR -2.5 o/u 41.5
If it were not for Wilson's return to Seattle, Baker Mayfield's rematch against the Browns would be the main event. After a dramatic offseason with the Browns absolutely disrespecting Mayfield, he is going to be looking for revenge. He had some choice words for them earlier this week, but this is a good Browns defense. Therefore, I'm looking at a different angle to back Mayfield in his revenge game. Baker is not afraid to scramble, but he is not known as a running QB. He's never had close to 200 yards rushing in a season, but when the pocket breaks down, and he's healthy, he will take off. This Browns defense may outmatch the Browns this week, and Baker may be forced to make some plays with his feet. He may be motivated to take a few more chances to stick it to the Browns. I love Baker's rushing prop in this game.
Teaser of the Week
ARZ +12/LAR+8.5
I'm going to be teasing the Cardinals up to +12 against the Chiefs, and pairing that with the Rams +8.5 in the Thursday night opening game. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 September games. I see this success continuing against a Chiefs team dealing with a lot of turnover. A brand new receiving corps is going to have to get up to speed quick in a game that will be high scoring. Usually I would avoid a game with a high total like this in a teaser, but pushing the Cardinals through the 7 and 10 was too good to pass up. I will probably play them +6 as well.
The Rams at +2.5 was surprising to me. I think we see this get to +3 by gametime, so I wanted to jump on them for the teaser now to get the most value out of it. The Bills will be without Tre White, leaving the Bills vulnerable to the Rams passing attack. These teams are very evenly matched, and I don't see a scenario where this game gets away from the Rams.
I will be adding more picks as Sunday approaches, so make sure to follow me on Twitter at @LVSportsBet5280 and on the Action App at Lvhansen for any and all adds.
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