TNF Picks

Indianapolis @ Houston Picks

Spread: HOU-3.5
O/U: 46

These division rivals face off tonight for sole possession of first place in the AFC South. Both teams are relatively healthy, so I believe this game should be a good gauge on how talented these teams are and who really is the best team in the AFC South. Both teams are coming off the opposite sides of blowouts, as the Colts dismantled division rival Tennessee 33-13 and Houston was blown out by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens 41-7. 

Picks

I was wrong on the over play for the HOU game last week, as Watson came down to Earth and the Texans could only muster 232 yards of offense and 7 points. 

The model doesn't have a spread pick on this game, but I like the Colts to win outright as a 3.5 point dog. I would sprinkle the moneyline, while also taking the spread +3.5 Since we don't have a totals pick for this game, there are some interesting scoring props that offer great value.

HOU U0.5 TDS-1Q (-105)
TD props like this are always scary because it just takes a fluke play for over to hit. But the Texans average 2.3 points in the first half this season. I don't see them being able to buck this trend against Indianapolis. 

1st Score FG (+135)
I've had a lot of success on these first score props this season. These always seem like a 50/50 shot for either, and the value on this at +135 is unreal. I love this pick. 

Highest Scoring Half- 2H+OT(+110)
This season, Houston and Indianapolis average 20.7 points combined in the first half. In the second half? 27. They average almost a full touchdown more in the second half. Both these teams, especially Houston, pick up their scoring in the second half. 



THE PICKS:
IND +3.5 (-110), HOU U0.5TDs-1Q (-105), 1st Score FG (+135), 2H+OT Highest Score Half (+110)